Insight into the Impact of Credit Disequilibrium on Financial Markets
A Swedish perspective on the equilibrium level of interest
The equilibrium rate of interest in the history of economics has been a surprisingly controversial topic. In a brilliant essay [from 1979] the Swedish economist Leijonhufvud stated that “the theory of the interest rate mechanism is the center of the confusion in...
Credit disequilibrium models continue to outperform the market
I have had a number of requests recently to update the investment return tables generated from using a credit disequilibrium approach to investing. The ex ante model which begins back in 2001 continues to outperform the market significantly by avoiding being in...
A brief history of inflation in two charts
Over the last few months there have been numerous comments on blogs on the nature of inflation in historical periods, particularly that inflation has always been with us to a certain extent. The below chart demonstrates that this is clearly not the case. Using the...
Krugman, Wicksell and the inflation conundrum
Paul Krugman recently responded to Gavyn Davies’ excellent post on Keynesian Yellen vs Wicksellian BIS. Krugman argued that if an interest rate is set too low the economy overheats and we have accelerating inflation. However as Krugman points out there is no sign of...
Why r must grow faster than g in ageing societies to pay for rising pension liabilities
The central thesis of Piketty in his book is that when the return on capital defined by r grows faster than growth in income g, the net result is rising inequality. Those with capital therefore get richer than those without capital, leading to a society where...
The implications of Piketty’s data: monetary policy rather than a global wealth tax is the issue
This post, which is the first in a series of three on Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century, argues that his assertion we are heading back to pre-WW1 levels of inequality remains speculative and not supported by his data. As Larry Summers critiqued in his review,...