Insight into the Impact of Credit Disequilibrium on Financial Markets

Cuneiform inscriptions, interest rates and excess returns

On the ground floor of the Richelieu wing of the Louvre Museum is an obelisk which depicts the recorded minutes of a government’s credit policy decision from over 4,000 years ago. The Manishtushu Obelisk, written in cuneiform, denotes that the interest rate for...

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What investors can learn from freak waves

In December 1978, the cargo ship MS München, carrying steel across the Atlantic to Savannah, Georgia sank. At the time the cause of the tragedy was unknown. Although the ship was ploughing through a winter storm, the significant wave height predicted by the Rayleigh...

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US Bond Market Trumps Fake News

Liberal democracies force individuals to have moral opinions about the world we live in. Every few years, as the economist Joseph Schumpeter put it, citizens decide which elite best represents their point of view via the ballot box. Therefore, it is natural for voters...

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Credit cycle shift raises concerns over future consumption

The first quarter of 2018 was tough for asset allocators. Between January 26 and April 2, the S&P 500 dropped 10%, while 10 year government bond yields continued to widen. This shift in market sentiment combined with an intense newsflow of a pending global trade war...

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Trump’s tariffs: A costly return to “American” values?

American trade policy and free trade have rarely been bedfellows. President Trump’s arbitrary tariffs on imports of steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) announced on March 1st might be better understood as part of an American mercantilist tradition that stretches from...

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