Insight into the Impact of Credit Disequilibrium on Financial Markets
China’s falling rate of profit – not its ability to sustain GDP growth – is what investors need to be concerned about
A neo-Wicksellian analysis of the Chinese economy highlights that China is not experiencing a classic Wicksellian cumulative process as Japan did in the 1980s. A more pressing concern for investors ought to be the falling rate of profit. It is however plausible that...
Finally a measure of gross output will be released in 2014
Starting in spring 2014 the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release gross output data which is a measure of sales across all stages of production. This new data set, which has been championed by the economist Mark Skousen, will provide a more complete picture of what...
Revolution in passive index design could make passive the new active
Passive investing in market index funds has been labelled a "parasitic" business. However, re-designing index rules to account for corporate moves such as mergers and acquisitions could make passive the new active. This year's Nobel Prize in Economics was a good one...
Are fund managers – along with the North Koreans and Cubans – alone in believing that markets don’t work?
At a conference in 1995, Rex Sinquefield – who set up the first S&P index fund in 1973, quipped that it was only the North Koreans, Cubans and active fund managers who didn’t believe that markets worked. The overwhelming evidence that the vast majority of active fund...
New paper on measuring systemic risk for credit portfolio management
Thomas Aubrey and Giacomo Le Pera have a new paper on measuring systemic risk to improve credit portfolio management The paper argues that the correlation calculations embedded in the Basel rulebook are unable to provide useful estimates of the systemic risk factor...
Bernanke closely monitoring asset prices!
Ben Bernanke today spoke about how the Fed closely monitors asset prices. In his speech he stated: “For the purpose of safeguarding financial stability, we are less concerned about whether a given asset price is justified in some average sense than in the possibility...