Since President Trump took office on 20th January 2025, the US has been the worst performing stock market of the entire G7. While Trump likes to shoot from the hip when it comes to economic policy, investors in US assets it seems, do not appreciate this approach. The...

During the US presidential election campaign, Donald Trump promised to fix the economy by eliminating inflation, cutting taxes and increasing tariffs. This raises a challenge for asset allocators as to how these policies will hit expected asset returns in the short...

Since the federal funds rate hit 5% in March 2023, the bond market has been battling it out with the central bank. The market assumed that the US economy was heading for recession and required more accommodative monetary conditions. This negative outlook has been...

When Ronald Reagan said that the nine most dangerous words in the English language were “I’m from the government and I’m here to help,” he provoked a storm of protest from all sides of the political debate. Governments clearly can help drive competitiveness through...

The current market debate on interest rates has tended to focus only on the money rate of interest, and hence on when the Federal Reserve might start to cut short term rates. The idea is that a cut in rates will make money cheaper and therefore boost equities. Over...

The bond market remains confused about interest rates, which is why it continues to generate such unusual levels of volatility. One possible explanation for this ongoing uncertainty is that there is a fundamental difference of opinion between bond traders who have...