by Thomas Aubrey | Apr 24, 2014 | Uncategorized
Paul Krugman in a recent article argued that the rock star of the recovery – Sweden – has turned itself into Japan. The data he cites to back this claim up is deflation and a halt to the falling unemployment rate. This is a major claim to make which seems...
by Thomas Aubrey | Apr 20, 2014 | Uncategorized
The IMF has recently produced an interesting paper on the trend in global interest rates over the last 30 years. The paper argues that real interest rates have fallen over the last 30 years in three phases. In the 1980s and early 90s it was due to monetary policy, the...
by admin | Feb 19, 2014 | Uncategorized
Robert Peston recently made a documentary on why China’s credit binge will lead to another global financial crisis. His thesis is simple. China’s credit growth is excessive and if it continues it will result in an inevitable crash echoing the recent subprime bubble...
by admin | Feb 10, 2014 | Uncategorized
US market expected to maintain growth in capital values despite negative outlook for equities in other markets 2013 Model Predictions vs Actuals Credit disequilibrium asset allocation modelling proved to be extremely effective in forecasting asset value trajectories...
by admin | Jan 25, 2014 | Uncategorized
A neo-Wicksellian analysis of the Chinese economy highlights that China is not experiencing a classic Wicksellian cumulative process as Japan did in the 1980s. A more pressing concern for investors ought to be the falling rate of profit. It is however plausible that...
by admin | Dec 7, 2013 | Uncategorized
Starting in spring 2014 the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release gross output data which is a measure of sales across all stages of production. This new data set, which has been championed by the economist Mark Skousen, will provide a more complete picture of what...
