by Thomas Aubrey | Aug 29, 2014 | Uncategorized
I have had a number of requests recently to update the investment return tables generated from using a credit disequilibrium approach to investing. The ex ante model which begins back in 2001 continues to outperform the market significantly by avoiding being in...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jul 11, 2014 | Uncategorized
Over the last few months there have been numerous comments on blogs on the nature of inflation in historical periods, particularly that inflation has always been with us to a certain extent. The below chart demonstrates that this is clearly not the case. Using the...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jul 11, 2014 | Uncategorized
Paul Krugman recently responded to Gavyn Davies’ excellent post on Keynesian Yellen vs Wicksellian BIS. Krugman argued that if an interest rate is set too low the economy overheats and we have accelerating inflation. However as Krugman points out there is no sign of...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jun 9, 2014 | Uncategorized
The central thesis of Piketty in his book is that when the return on capital defined by r grows faster than growth in income g, the net result is rising inequality. Those with capital therefore get richer than those without capital, leading to a society where...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jun 2, 2014 | Uncategorized
This post, which is the first in a series of three on Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century, argues that his assertion we are heading back to pre-WW1 levels of inequality remains speculative and not supported by his data. As Larry Summers critiqued in his review,...
by Thomas Aubrey | May 13, 2014 | Uncategorized
With a third of the year already gone, it seemed timely to look at how the credit disequilibrium model has performed to date. The US model continued to signal equities and year to date they have performed better than bonds generating nominal returns of 2.4% versus...
