by Thomas Aubrey | Jun 8, 2017 | Uncategorized
Concerns about persistent underinvestment in the U.S. economy resulting from the financial crisis are overblown. The underlying issue is that the lack of a robust anti-trust framework has made it too easy for dominant firms to increase profits. Without sufficient...
by Thomas Aubrey | Mar 13, 2017 | Uncategorized
On March 1, the Dow plowed through the 21,000 barrier. Many market commentators sought to attribute this rise to President Trump’s congressional address the day before. Given that there was little policy detail in the speech, there seemed to be general agreement...
by Thomas Aubrey | Dec 12, 2016 | Uncategorized
The bond market reacted decisively to Donald Trump’s success in the U.S. presidential election. Ten-year treasury yields rose from 1.86% on November 8th to 2.37% on November 25th. Trump’s promise to invest $550 billion in infrastructure over the next decade in...
by Thomas Aubrey | Dec 10, 2016 | Uncategorized
The recent BREXIT vote should be a wake-up call for investors. The assumption that markets provide greater insight into the probability of certain events occurring was flawed. The betting markets along with the foreign exchange and equity markets were all signalling a...
by Thomas Aubrey | Mar 23, 2016 | Uncategorized
The jobs report announced on March 4, 2016 proved to be surprising for many. The S&P 500, which was introduced on that date in 1957, seemed unclear on how best to respond to it. The U.S. economy added an extra 242,000 jobs, with unemployment remaining at 4.9%....
by Thomas Aubrey | Feb 4, 2016 | Uncategorized
David Glasner in a recent blog post referred to a paper he wrote in January 2011 on The Fisher Effect Under Deflationary Expectations. The paper is well worth reading for anyone interested in the interplay between monetary policy, asset prices and the recent financial...
