by Thomas Aubrey | Feb 27, 2019 | Uncategorized
In December 1978, the cargo ship MS München, carrying steel across the Atlantic to Savannah, Georgia sank. At the time the cause of the tragedy was unknown. Although the ship was ploughing through a winter storm, the significant wave height predicted by the Rayleigh...
by Thomas Aubrey | Nov 28, 2018 | Uncategorized
Liberal democracies force individuals to have moral opinions about the world we live in. Every few years, as the economist Joseph Schumpeter put it, citizens decide which elite best represents their point of view via the ballot box. Therefore, it is natural for voters...
by Thomas Aubrey | Aug 28, 2018 | Uncategorized
When improved 19th century optics technology enabled astronomers to observe the trajectory of Mercury around the sun, they discovered it didn’t follow the path anticipated by Newton’s laws. But instead of disputing Newton’s theory, many astronomers decided that...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jun 1, 2018 | Uncategorized
The first quarter of 2018 was tough for asset allocators. Between January 26 and April 2, the S&P 500 dropped 10%, while 10 year government bond yields continued to widen. This shift in market sentiment combined with an intense newsflow of a pending global trade...
by Thomas Aubrey | Mar 10, 2018 | Uncategorized
American trade policy and free trade have rarely been bedfellows. President Trump’s arbitrary tariffs on imports of steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) announced on March 1st might be better understood as part of an American mercantilist tradition that stretches from...
by Thomas Aubrey | Oct 19, 2017 | Uncategorized
In his novel, “War and Peace,” Leo Tolstoy rants at the idiocy of the intelligentsia for providing simplistic descriptions of the causes of events. The view that France invaded Russia because Napoleon gave the order and as a result, 600,000 people followed him across...
