by Thomas Aubrey | Aug 24, 2023 | Uncategorized
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell throughout 2023 has been hawkish on inflation and the need to increase and maintain higher levels of interest rates. The market reaction during the first half of 2023 was that this would trigger a recession, given the view that...
by Thomas Aubrey | May 26, 2023 | Uncategorized
Markets on the whole do a decent job of synthesizing information at the micro level, but they often get the macro signals wrong as was noted by Paul Samuelson. In his 1998 paper, Samuelson argued that there is no persuasive evidence that macro market inefficiency is...
by Thomas Aubrey | Feb 24, 2023 | Uncategorized
The late economist Axel Leijonhufvud noted in a 1979 essay that the theory of the interest rate mechanism remains at the centre of the confusion in modern macroeconomics. All the inconclusive quarrels, he argued, largely stem from this source. While financial market...
by Thomas Aubrey | Dec 2, 2022 | Uncategorized
Investors often fail to distinguish between uncertainty and risk. This is partly because there is an army of strategists advising investors how to manage risk through market narratives. These narratives attempt to explain away the complexity of the world we live in,...
by Thomas Aubrey | Aug 30, 2022 | Uncategorized
The US equity market has had a surprising rebound this summer; rallying more than 17% between mid-June to mid-August. The narrative for the first half of the year had been focused on a pending recession, given that a sustained decline in economic output tends to...
by Thomas Aubrey | Jun 1, 2022 | Uncategorized
Making the right asset allocation decision is critical if pension funds are to generate sufficient returns to meet their liabilities. A recent analysis by GlobalSWF indicates that US public pension funds are only 75% funded and face a $1.3 trillion shortfall. Other...
